A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
